Research

“Cigarette Taxes and the Household Budget” (with Reginald Hebert, Chad Cotti, and Michael F. Pesko)

This paper studies the effects of cigarette excise tax increases on household budgets. Using Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey data, we find that cigarette taxes only modestly increased cigarette expenditures over the period 1996 to 2022. For example, a $1 increase in cigarette taxes increased household quarterly cigarette expenditures by approximately $7.10 (10.5%), and by $21.36 among cigarette smoking households at baseline (6.5%). We did not find evidence of these effects differing substantially across sex, race/ethnicity, or income, nor over time up to two years after the tax increase. A $1 tax increase led to a 1.5 percentage point drop in households purchasing cigarettes (household tax elasticity of demand = -0.172), which helps explain our modest increase in expenditures. Tax-paid cigarette pack sales meanwhile decline by 11.5%. We can further rule out anything larger than a 4.3% reduction in human capital spending among baseline smoking households due to a $1 cigarette tax increase.

Working Papers

Job Market Paper: The Expansion and Contraction of the Child Tax Credit: Estimates on Consumer Expenditures

This paper examines the impact of the 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion on household consumer expenditures in the U.S., using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (2018-2022). By applying a regression discontinuity design (RDD) and difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology, the study finds that the CTC expansion led to significant increases in spending, particularly in essential categories like food, housing, and child-related expenses. Households spent an additional $0.48-$0.82 for every dollar of CTC received. Comparing the CTC with the Economic Impact Payments (EIP), this study reveals similar spending patterns, questioning the effectiveness of labeling funds as child-specific. The findings highlight the critical role of cash transfer programs in supporting low-income families while raising concerns about the delivery of such benefits through the tax system, particularly for non-filing households.

Works in Progress

“Ban The Box” Policies, Crime, and Recidivism: Evidence From Florida