Research
Working Papers
This paper examines the impact of the 2021 Child Tax Credit (CTC) expansion on household consumer expenditures in the U.S., using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey (2018-2022). By applying a regression discontinuity design (RDD) and difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology, the study finds that the CTC expansion led to significant increases in spending, particularly in essential categories like food, housing, and child-related expenses. Households spent an additional $0.48-$0.82 for every dollar of CTC received. Comparing the CTC with the Economic Impact Payments (EIP), this study reveals similar spending patterns, questioning the effectiveness of labeling funds as child-specific. The findings highlight the critical role of cash transfer programs in supporting low-income families while raising concerns about the delivery of such benefits through the tax system, particularly for non-filing households.
This paper studies the effects of cigarette excise tax increases on household budgets. Using Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey data, we find that cigarette taxes only modestly increased cigarette expenditures over the period 1996 to 2022. For example, a $1 increase in cigarette taxes increased household quarterly cigarette expenditures by approximately $7.10 (10.5%), and by $21.36 among cigarette smoking households at baseline (6.5%). We did not find evidence of these effects differing substantially across sex, race/ethnicity, or income, nor over time up to two years after the tax increase. A $1 tax increase led to a 1.5 percentage point drop in households purchasing cigarettes (household tax elasticity of demand = -0.172), which helps explain our modest increase in expenditures. Tax-paid cigarette pack sales meanwhile decline by 11.5%. We can further rule out anything larger than a 4.3% reduction in human capital spending among baseline smoking households due to a $1 cigarette tax increase.
As of 2023, 15 states (including Washington D.C.), 17 cities, and four counties have paid sick leave laws that allow workers to use paid time off for healthcare utilization. Some groups have argued that paid sick leave laws could reduce healthcare spending overall by increasing use of preventative care and reducing infectious disease. We evaluate these claims by studying the effect of paid sick leave laws on aggregate private insurance spending data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and household spending data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find evidence that paid sick leave laws significantly increase per-capita private insurance spending as well as out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs. Our results show a 7.5% increase in per-capita private health insurance spending, and a 25% increase in prescription drug spending among households most likely to newly gain paid sick leave. We conclude that reducing healthcare spending is not one of the likely benefits of paid sick leave laws.
Works in Progress
“Ban The Box” Policies, Crime, and Recidivism: Evidence From Florida
